Im John Dankosky, and now its time to check in on the state of science. A subscription helps you access more of the local stories that keep you connected to the community. Lake powell has an electrical generation station there. Arizona, which receives 36 percent of its water supply from the river, according to the Arizona Department of Water Resources, has been hit hardest by the cuts. Federal and state officials have committed to a more inclusive process that integrates the needs of tribes, environmental and recreation groups, and Mexico. what little rain and snow has fallen dries . . This cookie is associated with Django web development platform for python. In the second stage of Fill Mead First, the reservoir's level would near 3,374 feet, near the river outlet works. The Upper Colorado Commissions computer models have shown that if the Upper Basin states take the precautionary measures theyre talking about, the risk of Powell falling to dangerously low levels is near zero even if the basin gets another 25 years of weather like it did from 1988 through 2012, said Don Ostler, executive director the Upper Colorado River Commission. What about the idea of a water shortage? Scientists say the current status of Lake Mead is a stark illustration of climate change and a megadrought that could be the worst in the U.S. West in 1,200 years . Even if nothing is done, he believes the risk quite low. Mead was created when the Hoover Dam was completed in 1935. A . Nearly all of Utah, New Mexico, . I would say less than 20 percent, Ostler said. Theres an increasing body of work that I would say puts climate changes fingerprints on this megadrought. The river carried an average of 14.7 million acre feet from 1906 through 2015. And its easy to put them off if you get a wet year. Water managers in the four Upper Basin states and the federal government are expected to start monthly planning calls this year to consider options for propping up the reservoir if needed. Stock image of Alstrom Point, Lake Powell. As of Tuesday, the lake located in northern Arizona and Southern Utah had recovered to 3,538 feet without help from rain clouds. What happens if Lake Powell runs out of water? Newsweek previously reported that Lake Mead's dead pool level is 895 feet, while Lake Powell's is 3,370. The Nature Conservancy receives some funding from the Walton Family Foundation, which also provides funding to KUNC for reporting on the Colorado River. a study published in the journal Science said the current dry period in the Southwest is one for the record books, and that its "megadrought-like trajectory" is fueled by natural variability superimposed on . Below 3,490 feet of elevation, Lake Powell dips into a zone where the generation of hydropower by water flowing through the Glen Canyon Dam becomes unreliable. The April-July forecast for Colorado River runoff into Lake Powell is 74 percent of average. Lake Powell generates power for about 5.8 million households and businesses in Arizona, Colorado, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming. That could cripple the ability of the Colorado Rivers four Upper Basin states to deliver river water to the Lower Basin states of Arizona, California and Nevada, as theyre legally obligated to do. It stores water as part of the Colorado River Compact and produceselectricity through the hydroelectric turbines in Glen Canyon dam. And its split into two watersheds. Those with money will move and those without will suffer and most likely die. According to nonprofit news organization CalMatters, California, which receives the most water from the river at 4.4 million acre-feetmore than one-third of the river's supplyhas not yet been impacted by the cuts. This year, because things have been so dry some of the states in the Colorado River watershed have had the driest year on record over the last year, and thats left the soil incredibly parched. Many of the. The southwestern states have been gripped by drought for over 22 years, experts say. Correction: A previous version of this story indicated that 3,490 feet is Lake Powell's "dead pool" level. We don't know what happens below 3,490, said Taylor Hawes, Colorado River program director at the Nature Conservancy. First of all Lake Powell is not gonna dry up. Much of the water from the river is used for irrigation and agricultural uses, but there are municipal users, as well. The Lower Basin states have already agreed on two short-term programs to reduce their take of water from Mead. If the reservoir dips below 895 feet a possibility still years . Okay. Getty Images. This story is part of ongoing coverage of water in the West, produced by KUNC in Colorado and supported by the Walton Family Foundation. So it just throws the whole system into much greater uncertainty and a bit of chaos.. Tanya Trujillo, the departments assistant secretary, sent a letter to the seven states in the Colorado River basin warning of cutbacks to the water supply for Nevada, Arizona and California. Its not quite as bad as 2002, she said, but it could easily get there. "It would kill 50 to 60% of the businesses in town," said Franz. If its done intentionally, the drawbacks of losing the reservoir could be minimized and the benefits could be maximized, Balken told The Hill. The two. California broke from six other Western states in proposal to cut Colorado River use as water levels reach historic lows. This segment is part ofThe State of Science, a series featuring science stories from public radio stations across the United States. The level has risen over the winter months due to rainfall and particularly cold weather to hit parts of the U.S. At this stage a significant amount of Glen Canyon . "I've been here since 2007 and obviously this is way lower than I've ever seen it.". It survives, she said. In an emergency request issued in June 2022, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation urged states relying on the Colorado River basin to reduce their water usage by between 2 million and 4 million acre-feet over the next 18 months. And it doesnt allow ratepayers who rely on power production from the canyon to be forward-thinking and operate under conditions of certainty., Cities, farmers and fish all need certainty when it comes to water, and this is the opposite of certainty, Hawes said. Nancy Selover, Arizonas state climatologist, says the Upper Basin figure is concerning because that accounts for the rivers headwaters. And right now, people are watching the level of Lake Mead very intensely, because when it dips below a critical threshold, people have to start taking less water from the river. Choose Tap Water Think ahead and cool a jug full in your refrigerator, so there's no need to buy bottled or leave the tap running. Such is the nature of the climate change beast that we have unleashed.. And thats really what were watching right now, is how low is Lake Mead going to go? Lake Mead and Lake Powell rise and fall together, said Chuck Cullom, the Central Arizona Projects Colorado River programs manager. Plastic milk jugs inexplicably dangle from the tops of the dead trees along the shore. The test_cookie is set by doubleclick.net and is used to determine if the user's browser supports cookies. And how can certain policy agreements, policy negotiations, be structured in order to allow tribal nations to come to the table and negotiate for future policies? Having a reliable Lake Powell to back up Lake Mead is crucial especially during a period of uncertainty, Lower Basin users say. So water from the Colorado River is now pumped across the state of Arizona via the Central Arizona Project (CAP). A water level of 3,490 feet is known as "minimum power pool." And there is some evidence that this dry period would have happened without our greenhouse gas emissions. A drought that has gripped the Southwest is creeping the nation's two largest reservoirs toward a dead pool, which would have catastrophic consequences for water users in the Colorado River's lower basin. What is the current status of Lake Powell? We don't know if the dam will operate as expected. It wascreated by blocking the Colorado River atGlen Canyon in southern Utah and northernArizona. This drought will only be exacerbated by climate change, as the increased global temperatures are expected to increase the severity of drought weather and frequencies of wildfires, as well as influencing a vast range of other extreme weather events. Are experts looking at this saying, its just going to get worse in the Colorado River basin? If Lake Powell recedes much further, one of the nation's largest reservoirs could be at risk of no longer generating hydropower for the region. However, the receding water levels have already greatly reduced the reservoirs generating capacity, to about 800 megawattsabout 60 percent. JOHN DANKOSKY: So its not just the reservoirs, though, where you see these dramatic pictures of just how low the water is. Every other state in the watershed had one of its top five driest years on record. The water level decline . The Colorado River basin has experienced three D4 droughts in the last 20 years, including the current one. The reservoir is integrating all the problems we have, all the challenges we face show up in that one number, in that one place, he said. This website uses cookies to improve your experience. These cookies help provide anonymized information on metrics the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc. With the reservoirs approaching their lowest levels in modern history, that brings us to our final number: 2026. Those are Colorado, Wyoming, New Mexico, and Utah. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. The lower basin is made up of Arizona, Nevada, and California. Applying data from three droughts from a 25-year period starting in 1988, it predicted that even with little new growth in that basin, a moderate drought would trigger shortages of 350,000 to 500,000 acre-feet. If the reservoir dips below 895 feet a possibility still years. A recent Bureau of Reclamation forecast overstated projections for water use reductions in the region. Water levels at . We called several of them and asked for discrete numbers that capture the current state of the Colorado River basin. The lake that once covered 400 square miles has shrunk 90 percent, leaving behind oxygen-deprived, highly salinized water with a rotten-egg odor that permeates the surrounding area. During the 2000-2005 drought, Lake Powell lost 13 million acre-feet of water and dropped almost 100 feet. As part of 2019s Drought Contingency Plan, water managers agreed that the reservoirs water should be kept above 3,525 feet to provide a buffer before it got even lower, giving the agencies in charge some time to come up with a fix. 40 fun events happening in Tucson this weekend Feb. 23-26 , Opinion: Help protect Lake Mead and Colorado River water, Colorado River runoff forecast keeps dropping, Warm weather reducing Colorado River runoff, study finds, Feds back off from Lake Mead water demand, Businesses, residents paid to save water in this Arizona valley, Tucson to leave nearly 20% of its CAP water in Lake Mead, 'Toilet to tap' water treatment will soon be legal in Arizona, officials say, Big snowstorms put Colorado River drought plan on ice, Colorado River tops group's 'endangered' list again, CAP-California water deal that Arizona nixed provokes ongoing conflict, Water bailout? Newsweek reached out to the Central Arizona Project for comment. . Theyre already low, because the entire watershed has been experiencing above-average temperatures and below-average river flows since the year 2000. This is a 300-mile canal that runs through the deserts of Arizona to deliver water to farmers and to the Phoenix and Tucson metro areas. "That has brought everything to a head much earlier than people thought it would.". AWSALB is an application load balancer cookie set by Amazon Web Services to map the session to the target. The word unprecedented gets thrown around a lot in discussions about the Colorado River these days, and this is no exception. Get up-to-the-minute news sent straight to your device. For terms of use and more information, visit our policies pages athttp://www.sciencefriday.com/about/policies/. Other uncategorized cookies are those that are being analyzed and have not been classified into a category as yet. So, what would happen if Lake Powell dried up? JOHN DANKOSKY: When you use the term megadrought, that sounds like a newer term. But the last time it was anywhere close to that level was 1999. The U.S. Department of the Interior is considering a plan to keep extra water in Lake Powell. Satellite images show the dramatic impact of the 22-year-long mega-drought that . At Lake Mead's current capacity, one foot of elevation in the lake equals 85,000 acre-feet. "The West might look different," said Hasencamp. He has mostly covered environmental stories since 2005, focusing on water supplies, climate change, the Rosemont Mine and the endangered jaguar. In . Every year, it stores water that flows downstream from the four Upper Basin states. In case of a drought like that of 2000-2005, Lake Mead would get 7.48 million acre-feet, worsening the structural deficit that is already causing Mead to drop by up to 12 feet a year due to the Lower Basin states chronic overuse of river water compared to supply. Its also headed toward a record low later this year. Definitions explained. It will be painful but it doesn't mean the area can't thrive. With the dropping water levels, this industry is likely to be extremely impacted, as seen by a boating ramp that used to be used to launch boats now having a 50 foot drop between the end of the ramp and the water. Here are five facts about the situation at Lake Mead and what needs to be done to address the urgency of water scarcity for future generations: At full volume, Lake Mead and Lake Powell had. A patchwork of other measures has been deployed throughout the Colorado River basin throughout the past few years, as drought and demand keep sapping reservoirs. Overall, the river's flowis down 20% in this century relative to the 20th century. And so when you have snow thats melting off, it gets soaked up into the ground before it flows into a river or flows into a reservoir. And as we warm even further, it makes it that much harder for our infrastructure, our water storage, to recover. The water levels in Lake Powell are dramatically lower than they were in 2021, which in turn were lower than they were in 2020. Because the deficit is so substantial, Meyer said its very likely the watershed will see drought conditions persist in 2021. Pause your chores until you have a full-load for the dishwasher. The Southwest United States is wrapping up an abnormally dry winter. So Im guessing over the next several years, as policies are negotiated, youre going to hear a lot more about how tribes are being involved in that process. Broadly speaking, dropping levels have created a lot of unanswered questions about the future. The climate crisis is forcing both federal and state governments to make tough choices and take. When its needed its released to Lake Mead and the three Lower Basin states. Credit: Alex Hager. The increase in temperatures means the atmosphere is thirstier. Even hardy desert plants, the ones well-adapted to water scarcity, have struggled. The Glen Canyon Dam, D'deest'in Htsaa, marks where the water level in Lake Powell on the Colorado River, reaches. I havent shown the climate change hydrology because it just scares everybody, Kuhn told his districts governing board in June, according to an account of the meeting published in the Aspen Daily News. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary". What would constitute that? Lake Powell is a few hundred feet above dead-pool level. LinkedIn sets this cookie to store performed actions on the website. Throughout the history of the American West, water issues have shown their ability to both unite and divide communities. Kathryn Sorensen, research director at the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University, said it will push water managers further in the direction of finding more permanent solutions. Brad Udall, a water researcher at Colorado State University whos not involved with the contingency plan, is less optimistic. KUNC is solely responsible for its editorial coverage. These ICS uses, at the high end, amount to two and a half feet of elevation in Lake Mead. The bureau's report for June, added on to previously scheduled reservoir updates for January, April and August, paints a dire picture. Skip Navigation. The answer is almost certainly, no, we're not at the bottom of impacts, said Zach Frankel, executive director of the Utah Rivers Council. YSC cookie is set by Youtube and is used to track the views of embedded videos on Youtube pages. What does the forecast look like? There is also 29 federally-recognized tribes in the basin, of which 10 of those tribes hold a significant amount of water rights from the river. The idea that these smaller upstream reservoirs can continue to compensate Powells losses, thats not the case, he said. Without wet hydrology to replenish the reservoirs, the basin finds itself in an all but certain shortage condition for the first time." . These cookies track visitors across websites and collect information to provide customized ads. The latest projections from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation show there's a. A drying climate and withering heat in recent years have pummeled the region: water cuts to farmers, dry wells, mass fish and bird die-offs, and depleted reservoirs that have decimated hydropower output. That includes releases of water upstream of Lake Powell, and voluntary cuts in Powells downstream neighbor, Lake Mead. Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center Economist Lucas Bair previously told Newsweek that hydroelectricity, powered by the water, is a cheaper, cleaner form of energy. Correction 01/16/23 10:56 a.m. And even the people who say, you know, oh, just wait for it to get wet again, know that changes have to be made because of that fundamental supply-demand imbalance. If its dry there, that means many more problems as the water flows downstream. Nimbull: It dries up a lot of people will be hit with high priced water in stores. Alex is KUNC's reporter covering the Colorado River Basin. The Colorado River feeds both reservoirs, then supplies the lower-basin states of California, Arizona, Nevada and New Mexico with water. If the drought and excessive water use continues, Lake Mead could reach dead pool in the next two years and Lake Powell could soon follow. Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better experience for the visitors. New York, NY 10004. "This is apparently a decent (water) year, but still, if it turns dry again there are some pretty big reductions on tap and every state could be affected," saidHasencamp. By Jan. 29, when the "after" image was taken, Shasta was up to 56%. And so this creates a lot of potential problems downstream in the Grand Canyon, it creates management problems for the reservoir itself in Glen Canyon, and most importantly, it jeopardizes the upper[Colorado River]basins ability to meet its delivery obligation downstream, Balken said. The combined reservoirs in Utah are below 50% full. We are still facing a nearly 1 in 4 chance of Lake Powell returning to "minimum power pool" by 2024 - a risk that remains steady through 2026, the latest year for which Reclamation has forecast. Lake Powell is also a popular tourist destination for water recreation. For context, on the scale of no drought to worst drought, theres no category that captures conditions more dry than exceptional. Lakes in the Colorado River Basin are drying up and losing water, with severe water cuts now expected across four states - the start of a water crisis in the West. Used by Yahoo to provide ads, content or analytics. Lake Powell is hemmed by the Glen Canyon Dam, which generates hydroelectric power via the dam's water flowing through the dam back into the Colorado River. LUKE RUNYON: So seven US states make up the Colorado River basin. Copyright 2021 Science Friday Initiative. "Its hard to overstate how important the Colorado River is to the entire American southwest.. NID cookie, set by Google, is used for advertising purposes; to limit the number of times the user sees an ad, to mute unwanted ads, and to measure the effectiveness of ads. Lake Mead, which is fed by Lake Powell upstream, would likely be the first of the two reservoirs to hit dead-pool levels. What to know about the West's ongoing water crisis: Lake Powell is the nation's second-largestreservoir.