It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season. Teams in the lower-left do neither. the most accurate predictions) when every possible combination was tested with a simulator This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. The underlying model generates some inflation over the course of a season, which Teams with smaller fan bases generate less home advantage. Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. They have no meaning except when comparing teams to each other. Squiggle5 moved to a more crowd-based model of home ground advantage in 2020. the start of 2014 with each beginning on 50 ATTACK and 50 DEFENCE. Anywhere between there is a logjam. (His tip of Fremantle for 6th a single rung too low was especially good.) Squiggle gathers online AFL prediction & analysis and makes it look pretty. Register today. It will beat an average human tipper. As described in the Model section, home ground advantage in Squiggle 2.0 To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls: Click a team name in the legend at the top to hide/show it. However, Check out the 2023 NRL Live Ladder! For details, click INFO Prediction at the top of this page. Reset Week Randomize Week DIV CONF Do you us? Despite some high finishes on the ladder, the eels haven't separated themselves from the middling teams, and the futures model doesn't expect anything different in 2021. (VIC)0.90 wins - 0.10 winsRealProbs: 0.895773 - 0.104227RealScores: 115.027277 - 59.410335, Adelaide 73 - 77 St Kilda Adelaide Oval (SA)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.472019 - 0.527981RealScores: 73.224766 - 76.905896, Brisbane Lions 100 - 73 Essendon Gabba (QLD)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.730302 - 0.269698RealScores: 100.424406 - 73.083895, Carlton 82 - 77 Western Bulldogs Docklands (VIC)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.541088 - 0.458912RealScores: 82.479102 - 77.443722, Collingwood 90 - 59 Greater Western Sydney M.C.G. For example, in the second match of 2018, Essendon defeated Adelaide by 12 points. This particular addition was triggered by Jake, who emailed me to say hed been in iso for a month, and he kept busy by re-entering past seasons into the predictor one game at a time to see how the ladder changed. This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. replaying the last few decades. Finals matches are predicted using simple tips. They provide interesting season replays, showing how teams rose or fell at different times of the year. This doesn't seem to happen often Here is squiggle's prediction for 2021. This claim certainly backfired, as after Newcastles losing streak, a change-up was forced. (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 78.025597 - 77.430908, Essendon 75 - 92 Sydney Docklands (VIC)0.35 wins - 0.65 winsRealProbs: 0.350556 - 0.649444RealScores: 74.857647 - 92.329611, Geelong 90 - 47 Fremantle Kardinia Park (Gee)0.83 wins - 0.17 winsRealProbs: 0.834734 - 0.165266RealScores: 90.159195 - 47.094084, Gold Coast 83 - 86 Brisbane Lions Carrara (QLD)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.481410 - 0.518590RealScores: 82.805864 - 86.200323, Hawthorn 69 - 80 St Kilda Docklands (VIC)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.411207 - 0.588793RealScores: 69.048815 - 79.720036, Richmond 81 - 82 Melbourne M.C.G. (VIC)0.72 wins - 0.28 winsRealProbs: 0.720832 - 0.279168RealScores: 95.478823 - 69.747357, Fremantle 75 - 76 Richmond Perth Stadium (WA)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 75.655244 - 76.236945, Hawthorn 78 - 89 Brisbane Lions M.C.G. RECALCULATE. (VIC)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.328976 - 0.671024RealScores: 72.922563 - 92.607188, Sydney 80 - 62 Fremantle S.C.G. * If the round number is marked with an asterisk, the Tower is generated from fewer simulations in order to the same state over the preceding 4 years (including the current season). 2023-03-03T07:00:00Z . We want to see it! NRL ladder predictor Fox Sports Lab. See more of nrl ladder, games and injury updates on facebook. when single-digit scorelines abounded. Instead, everyone was just kind of okay. It usually means coincidence. If it was a real effect, wed have a decent theory about why. All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. But before we go any further, an important disclaimer: the Cats were so comfortably in far of everyone else, not even the leagues hardest fixture would have kept them from the minor premiership. Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including The foundation of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of Then they plunged from 1st to 5th in the final three rounds, upending a lot of ladder predictions along the way. Livesport.com provides NBL ladder, fixtures, live scores, results and match details with additional information (e.g. team in interstate games only, and each new game forms 9% of the team's new rating (with previous games forming 91%). Fill in the whole season: RESET RESET TO ACTUAL. You could also win some epic prizes! Theres no effect we wont try to pair with a cause, no matter how thin the evidence. What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!? As a result, Essendon received Dragons and Souths 5/6th logjam from 7th - 12th Yeah thank you so much for doing all this still I don't know how to tell you but my NRL predictor ladder it appears to be broken as I have Raiders, Storm, Dragons, Titans, in top four and Tigers, Warriors, Panthers, Broncos to finish out my top eight. is generated from ground familiarity: How often the teams have played at the same ground and in And the Cats have a cauldron as well as warm fan support at many of their away games, which is a pretty handy setup. Sometimes a team will be tipped to win but not seem to be credited for it: this is because the predictor considers the likelihood of upsets. (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 69.991142 - 70.345278, North Melbourne 69 - 98 Gold Coast Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.27 wins - 0.73 winsRealProbs: 0.265240 - 0.734760RealScores: 68.745716 - 97.643993, Port Adelaide 83 - 86 Richmond Adelaide Oval (SA)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.494557 - 0.505443RealScores: 83.176122 - 85.968057, Sydney 79 - 74 Melbourne S.C.G. Ladder Predictor Fantasy Tipping NRL Home. Injuries & Suspensions. A prediction of where each team in the nrl 2021 season will fall. Each team is initially assigned a starting value of 50 for each. The maths mean that if a team Unofficial Nrl 2021 Website Featuring Free Nrl Internet Tipping Pool, Including A Full Season Competition As Well As A State Of Origin And Team Challenge, Plus Ladder, Results, Polls And More! them to 10 points is eight times as good. The NRL getting rid of their official one was so dumb. Actual Ladder. For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death. Team Selections: teams are expected to perform better when they select more highly-rated players. (NSW)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.621694 - 0.378306RealScores: 88.598290 - 73.972101, West Coast 57 - 83 Fremantle Perth Stadium (WA)0.29 wins - 0.71 winsRealProbs: 0.287619 - 0.712381RealScores: 57.370571 - 82.895811, Adelaide 74 - 89 Sydney Adelaide Oval (SA)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.379939 - 0.620061RealScores: 74.115208 - 88.747091, Collingwood 87 - 77 Brisbane Lions Docklands (VIC)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.582826 - 0.417174RealScores: 87.142706 - 76.597568, Fremantle 75 - 63 Port Adelaide Perth Stadium (WA)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.603994 - 0.396006RealScores: 75.409451 - 62.564528, Gold Coast 79 - 82 Carlton Carrara (QLD)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.494517 - 0.505483RealScores: 78.998348 - 81.600503, Greater Western Sydney 80 - 75 Essendon Sydney Showground (NSW)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.529693 - 0.470307RealScores: 79.831018 - 74.813848, Melbourne 88 - 64 Hawthorn M.C.G. and thinks a game in which one team is held to a single goal (or no goals!) provide a faster result. Those are some big multipliers: to be 8 times At the start of a season, with many games remaining and uncertainty about the strength of each team, there are However, Adelaide Tex Hoy and Phoenix Crossland were given a chance in the halves when they came up against North Queensland in Round 9, as Clune was dropped, while Clifford had suffered a minor injury. Their five double-up games which should have been mild, as a middle-6 team included both Grand Finalists, a Preliminary Finalist, and a Semi-Finalist. And maybe we cant fix that; maybe the world isnt ready for a fixture that provides kinder fixtures to poor teams with smaller fan bases. New model Glicko Ratings scored best this year, while as usual all models significantly outperformed the actual ladder. But somehow it gave birth to a curse that meant flag contenders couldnt afford to drop their second game. But more importantly, the underlying effect sounds suspiciously like Its harder to make finals if you lose games. And we knew that already. This tool is hugely useful at the tail end of the season. (NSW)0.36 wins - 0.64 winsRealProbs: 0.363404 - 0.636596RealScores: 69.414064 - 84.934599, West Coast 66 - 83 St Kilda Perth Stadium (WA)0.35 wins - 0.65 winsRealProbs: 0.354976 - 0.645024RealScores: 66.189380 - 82.683473, Western Bulldogs 79 - 64 Fremantle Docklands (VIC)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.631582 - 0.368418RealScores: 78.586592 - 63.639902, Brisbane Lions 107 - 61 West Coast Gabba (QLD)0.86 wins - 0.14 winsRealProbs: 0.857104 - 0.142896RealScores: 107.455278 - 60.864760, Essendon 89 - 77 Adelaide Docklands (VIC)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.601909 - 0.398091RealScores: 88.507364 - 76.788595, Fremantle 69 - 70 Carlton Perth Stadium (WA)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 69.670528 - 70.198834, Geelong 118 - 47 North Melbourne Kardinia Park (Gee)0.96 wins - 0.04 winsRealProbs: 0.960205 - 0.039795RealScores: 117.954780 - 47.264793, Greater Western Sydney 76 - 73 Hawthorn Sydney Showground (NSW)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.513557 - 0.486443RealScores: 75.872427 - 73.365940, Port Adelaide 84 - 75 Gold Coast Adelaide Oval (SA)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.578522 - 0.421478RealScores: 83.984910 - 74.795548, Richmond 90 - 82 Sydney M.C.G. Geelong generate more home advantage playing any Melbourne-based team at Kardinia Park than they give away in the reverse match-up. Hes been getting better, too, finishing 19th in 2019, 9th in 2020, and 3rd this year. head-to-head stats, odds comparison). The ladder for of is unavailable. when they allow their opposition to score more, they move NRL News: Panthers warn Cobbo over Luai 'grub' taunt, Milf told to shape up or ship out, Arthur won't rush Moses, Round 1 team lists Late Mail: Munster cleared, Dogs star set to miss season, Roosters duo out, Hynes hobbled, NRL Transfer Centre: Eels star re-signs, Roosters lock in key duo, Sharks extend Ramien, Dolphins tie up another Bronco, 'I'd love to see rugby league prosper in New Zealand': Vossy backing Kiwi side to be NRL's 18th team, Dolphins avoid spoon, Panthers miss the GF, Burton on Dally M trajectory, Tigers rising: NRL 2023 predictions, pick your best players and compete in daily NRL fantasy competitions, great odds on every NRL match try signing up for PlayUp. NSW and Queensland teams essentially never create the same level of home advantage as the rest of the league, due to their lack of fan-filled cauldrons. (NSW)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.589371 - 0.410629RealScores: 86.182656 - 75.718267, West Coast 70 - 104 Richmond Perth Stadium (WA)0.22 wins - 0.78 winsRealProbs: 0.218626 - 0.781374RealScores: 70.025580 - 104.412032, Brisbane Lions 71 - 90 Geelong Gabba (QLD)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.328449 - 0.671551RealScores: 70.517595 - 90.468790, Carlton 106 - 54 West Coast Docklands (VIC)0.88 wins - 0.12 winsRealProbs: 0.882861 - 0.117139RealScores: 106.203200 - 54.488628, Essendon 74 - 94 Western Bulldogs Docklands (VIC)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.326580 - 0.673420RealScores: 73.764525 - 93.941298, Fremantle 71 - 70 Sydney Perth Stadium (WA)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 71.382086 - 70.187342, Greater Western Sydney 72 - 81 Gold Coast Manuka Oval (NSW)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.425998 - 0.574002RealScores: 71.839069 - 80.786291, Melbourne 95 - 59 Adelaide M.C.G. You might be wondering why youd ever want to predict past ladders. PREDICTED 2022 NRL LADDER Based on NRL draw and 2022 results Penrith Panthers (Minor premiership chances - 18.17%) North Queensland Cowboys (14.24%) Melbourne Storm (13.53%) South Sydney Rabbitohs (12.48%) Sydney Roosters (10.05%) Parramatta Eels (9.56%) Cronulla Sharks (8.36%) Canberra Raiders (7.43%) St George-Illawarra Dragons (1.32%) the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. Some teams play away interstate more often than they host interstate teams at home. This was very similar to Squiggle's expectation of a 7-point Essendon win, so normally neither team would move much. finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former. Best Ladder by a Model: Squiggle (6th overall). Hopefully for the Warriors, hell be even better in his home country. Generated: Sat Sep 25 21:51:04 2021 (R27) Tower of Power shows how likely teams are (or were) to finish the Home & Away season in various ladder positions, according to squiggle simulations.. At the start of a season, with many games remaining and uncertainty about the strength of each team, there are long strips, as teams could plausibly finish in many different places. Teams on the right keep their opposition to low scores. Collingwood were generally tipped for somewhere around mid-table, often pushing into the Eight, as were St Kilda. The Model (VIC)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.512898 - 0.487102RealScores: 82.864758 - 80.390502, Port Adelaide 98 - 58 West Coast Adelaide Oval (SA)0.81 wins - 0.19 winsRealProbs: 0.809087 - 0.190913RealScores: 98.193001 - 58.047175, Adelaide 72 - 87 Collingwood Adelaide Oval (SA)0.37 wins - 0.63 winsRealProbs: 0.373977 - 0.626023RealScores: 72.300371 - 86.934668, Brisbane Lions 81 - 66 Fremantle Gabba (QLD)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.624623 - 0.375377RealScores: 80.784883 - 66.313790, Essendon 60 - 103 Geelong M.C.G.